Cost per kWh
UnreliableDiesel generator 0.350
Solar + three-day battery 0.171
The panels themselves 0.015
0.179 USD per kWh cheaper than running the generator, a 51% lower cost per consumed kilowatt-hour.
Unit economics · Modelled estimate
What a kilowatt-hour costs a business in Nigeria
With 61.2% of the population on the grid and frequent outages, the real alternative is not the grid tariff but a diesel generator. Against diesel at 0.350 USD per kWh, solar with three days of storage brings the cost of a consumed kilowatt-hour down to 0.047.
- Grid reliability
- Unreliable
- Population with grid access
- 61.2%
- Installation labour cost
- 0.05 × Belgium
- Solar yield
- 1,450 kWh/kWp
What shapes the cost here
Net saving over 25 years
390USD per kWp
Solar only, after deducting the installation. A 500 kWp roof: about 195,000 USD over the lifetime.
Measured against the grid tariff instead
At 0.050 USD per kWh the tariff in Nigeria is among the lowest in the world. Solar does beat it — 0.037 per consumed kWh — but the saving is small and payback runs past 10 years. The case here rests on the generator, not on the tariff.
How long until it pays for itself
Against the diesel generatorSolar + three-day battery vs diesel 7.1years Full autonomy, generator on standby
Solar only Over 10 years The tariff is too low for the investment to pay back on its own.
Solar + day-night battery Over 10 years The tariff is too low for the investment to pay back on its own.
Households, for reference
- Grid
- 0.036
- Solar + battery
- 0.073
Why diesel is the reference here
A business only compares with the grid tariff if the grid actually delivers. We classify reliability per country from grid access and outage data; where it is weak, the generator is what solar replaces. Diesel is taken at 0.350 USD per kWh all-in, fuel plus maintenance.
What is not included
No discounting, maintenance, financing, subsidies, import duties or price rises. Peak shaving and arbitrage are left out until we hold the tariff data per country — so a real case is usually better than this, not worse.
These are modelled averages for the country, meant for comparing markets. Your own case runs on your roof, your load profile and your tariff — the configurator computes it with the rules that apply here.
How each figure is calculated
| Figure | Unit | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Installation labour cost | × | Cost of installation labour relative to Belgium (1.0). Eurostat construction labour cost for Europe, elsewhere derived from GDP per capita. Hardware is priced the same worldwide; only the labour part is scaled. |
| Grid access | % | Share of the population with an electricity connection (World Bank, most recent year). |
| Grid reliability | 1 = reliable (rare outages), 2 = moderate (occasional outages or regional load shedding), 3 = unreliable (frequent outages or structural load shedding). The tier decides what solar is compared against: the grid tariff, a diesel generator, or both. | |
| Grid price | USD/kWh | All-in retail price of a kilowatt-hour taken from the grid, the baseline every other figure is measured against. |
| Solar cost over 25 years | USD/kWh | Installation cost divided by everything the panels produce over 25 years, with output declining to 85 percent. The cost of the panels themselves, not of a consumed kilowatt-hour. |
| Cost per kWh with solar | USD/kWh | What a consumed kilowatt-hour costs with solar and no battery: grid purchase for the uncovered hours, plus the installation written off, minus the revenue on exported power. |
| Cost per kWh with solar and battery | USD/kWh | The same calculation with a battery that carries one night, written off over 15 years. |
| Cost per kWh against diesel | USD/kWh | Cost of a consumed kilowatt-hour where the alternative is a generator: solar with three days of storage, with the generator covering what is left. |
| Net saving over 25 years | USD/kWp | What one kWp of solar saves over 25 years after deducting the installation: self-consumption at the retail price plus exports at a quarter of it. |
| Payback, solar only | years | Years until the annual saving has paid back the installation, without discounting. Longer than ten years is reported as "over ten years": at that horizon the assumptions matter more than the outcome. |
| Payback, solar and battery | years | The same, for solar plus a battery that carries one night. |
| Payback, solar and three-day battery | years | The same, for solar plus three days of storage measured against the grid tariff. Three days of storage buys autonomy; against a cheap tariff it rarely pays for itself. |
| Payback against diesel | years | Years until solar with three days of storage has paid for itself against the fuel and maintenance of a generator. |
| Annual saving | USD/kWp/year | What one kWp of solar saves in a year: self-consumption at the retail price plus exports at a quarter of it. |
Solar autonomy scorecard · Modelled estimate
Can a business in Nigeria run on solar and a battery?
With PV sized at 120% of annual consumption, a battery that carries one night covers 85% of the demand in Nigeria; a battery holding three days of consumption lifts that to 100%.
Generation is almost flat through the year: the strongest month yields 1.2× the weakest, so there is no season to bridge.
Even in the three leanest months practically nothing is left uncovered.
Businesses pay on average 0.050 USD per kWh, households 0.036 USD per kWh.
- Electricity price, businesses
- 0.050USD/kWh
- Electricity price, households
- 0.036USD/kWh
- PV yield
- 1,450kWh/kWp
- Seasonal spread
- 1.2×strongest ÷ weakest month
- Three-day battery
- 9.9kWh/kWp
- Lean-season deficit
- 0.0%of annual consumption
Two battery scenarios
Both with PV sized at 120% of annual consumption.
Day-night battery
Stores the daytime surplus for the following night.
- Self-sufficiency
- 85%
- Self-consumption
- 71%
- Battery size
- 1.8 kWh/kWp
Three-day battery
Holds three full days of consumption, to ride through overcast spells.
- Self-sufficiency
- 100%
- Self-consumption
- 83%
- Battery size
- 9.9 kWh/kWp
Generation and demand through the year
Share of the annual total per month. Modelled from latitude and climate class, not measured.
- Weakest month
- 7.2%
- Strongest month
- 8.9%
- Seasonal spread
- 1.2×
- Consumption profile
- near-flat (cooling)
- Climate class
- tropical wet
PV yield / Consumption — Nigeria
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PV yield (%) | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 7.3 |
| Consumption (%) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
No seasonal gap to bridge
Even in the three leanest months practically nothing is left uncovered.
Every modelled value for Nigeria
The same fields as the downloadable dataset, with their definition.
| Variable | Value | Definition |
|---|---|---|
Continentcontinent | Africa | Continent the country belongs to. |
Countrycountry | Nigeria | Country name in English. |
Regionregion | — | Climate region within the country; empty when the country is modelled as one region. |
Electricity price, householdsprice_households_usd_mwh | 0.036 USD/kWh USD/MWh | Average all-in retail price for households, national average. Static average, not a dynamic or market price. |
Electricity price, businessesprice_businesses_usd_mwh | 0.050 USD/kWh USD/MWh | Average all-in retail price for businesses, national average. Empty where the source publishes no business price. |
PV yieldpv_yield_kwh_kwp | 1,450 kWh/kWp/year | Estimated annual yield of a well-oriented PV system per installed kWp, rounded to the nearest fifty. |
Weakest month shareweakest_month_share_pct | 7.2% | Share of the annual yield produced in the weakest of the twelve months (the wet season in monsoon climates, winter elsewhere). A perfectly flat year gives one twelfth per month. |
Strongest month sharestrongest_month_share_pct | 8.9% | Share of the annual yield produced in the strongest of the twelve months. |
Seasonal spreadseasonal_spread | 1.2× | Strongest month divided by weakest month. Close to one means flat generation all year; above ten means strongly seasonal. |
Self-consumption, day-night batteryself_consumption_daynight_pct | 71% | Share of the PV generation that is used on site with a battery sized to carry one night. Equals self-sufficiency divided by the oversizing factor. |
Self-sufficiency, day-night batteryself_sufficiency_daynight_pct | 85% | Share of the annual consumption covered by PV plus a battery sized to carry one night. Never above one hundred percent. |
Battery size, day-nightbattery_daynight_kwh_kwp | 1.8 kWh/kWp | Battery capacity needed to carry the night-time share of one day of consumption, per kWp of PV. |
Self-consumption, three-day batteryself_consumption_3day_pct | 83% | Share of the PV generation that is used on site with a battery holding three days of consumption. |
Self-sufficiency, three-day batteryself_sufficiency_3day_pct | 100% | Share of the annual consumption covered by PV plus a battery holding three days of consumption. This is the figure the energy-island assessment is based on. |
Battery size, three-daybattery_3day_kwh_kwp | 9.9 kWh/kWp | Battery capacity equal to three days of consumption, per kWp of PV. |
Consumption profileconsumption_profile | near-flat (cooling) | Assumed seasonal shape of demand for the climate: winter peak (heating), summer peak (cooling), double peak or near-flat. |
Lean-season deficitwinter_deficit_pct | 0% | Demand that stays unmet during the three consecutive lowest-yield months, despite the three-day battery, as a share of annual consumption. It is what remains for the grid, a backup generator or seasonal storage. |
Lean-season deficit, absolutewinter_deficit_kwh_kwp | 0 kWh/kWp | The same deficit expressed in kWh per kWp of PV. |
Latitudelatitude | 9.5 ° | Representative latitude used by the astronomical yield model; negative is the southern hemisphere. |
Climate classclimate | tropical wet | Climate class that sets the monthly cloud pattern, day-to-day variability and consumption profile. |
Monthly yield sharesmonthly_yield_share_pct | 7.4 · 8.0 · 8.6 · 8.9 · 8.8 · 8.8 · 8.8 · 8.9 · 8.7 · 8.2 · 7.6 · 7.3 | Twelve values, January to December: share of the annual PV yield per month. Modelled from latitude and climate class, not measured. |
Monthly consumption sharesmonthly_consumption_share_pct | 7.9 · 7.9 · 8.3 · 8.7 · 8.7 · 8.7 · 8.7 · 8.7 · 8.7 · 8.3 · 7.9 · 7.9 | Twelve values, January to December: assumed share of the annual consumption per month. |
How the model works
Monthly PV yield comes from an astronomical model (latitude, declination, tilt) multiplied by a climate pattern for cloud and rain. Day-to-day variability follows a gamma distribution per climate; multi-day coverage is the sum of independent days. Seasonal consumption is set per climate: a winter peak for heating, a summer peak for cooling, a double peak in Mediterranean climates.
Fixed assumptions
PV sized at 120% of annual consumption; 55% of consumption falls outside direct sun hours; battery round-trip efficiency 92%.
What it is not
An analytical approximation, not an hourly simulation of your site. Prices are static national averages, not dynamic or market prices. The deficit is not a storage recommendation: it quantifies what remains for grid, backup or seasonal storage.
Sources
- Electricity prices: national averages, Q2 2026.
- PV yield: Estimates in line with Global Solar Atlas (World Bank / Solargis), rounded to the nearest 50 kWh/kWp.
- Licence: CC BY 4.0.
- Dataset updated 2026-09-22
From country average to your own roof
The configurator is not live for Nigeria yet. See where it runs today, or ask us to model your site.
Nigeria — solar autonomy in short
Can a business in Nigeria go off-grid with solar and a battery?
With PV sized at 120% of annual consumption, a battery that carries one night covers 85% of the demand in Nigeria; a battery holding three days of consumption lifts that to 100%. Even in the three leanest months practically nothing is left uncovered.
How large a battery does solar autonomy take in Nigeria?
Per kWp of PV, carrying one night takes about 1.8 kWh of battery and holding three days of consumption about 9.9 kWh. With the three-day battery, self-sufficiency reaches 100%.
How much does solar generation in Nigeria vary between seasons?
A well-oriented system yields about 1,450 kWh per kWp a year. The strongest month produces 1.2× the weakest: 8.9% against 7.2% of the annual yield.
What does electricity cost in Nigeria?
Businesses pay on average 0.050 USD per kWh, households 0.036 USD per kWh.